FootballFallout

GW4 Key Fixtures to Target and Key Players that are a Must Have in your team

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Hello everyone and welcome to the Football Fallout edition of everything you need to know looking ahead into gameweek 4, justified by a number of data points along with some expert opinion.

My principle is that every selection/decision has to be supported by numbers. With that in mind, this article will take you through GW4 key fixtures to target and players to target.

To meet our targets and expectations, we need to target winning teams as our key fixtures and goal scorers or goal involvement as our key players.

Key Fixtures

1. Manchester Utd vs Newcastle

Manchester Utd xG is 2.01 and their xGA is 0.58. Where the xGA of Newcastle is 2.01, I am expecting more than 2 goals from a strong Utd side with Greenwood being involved in those goals. United are defensively a great team and the eye test highlights the difficult nature of creating good goal scoring chances against them. I am expecting a clean sheet from them, given that the shots in the box against (SiBA) United are 16 (which is the second highest after City) and the PSxG/SOTA is 0.21 indicating a very strong defence system. They scored 3-1 in their reverse fixture. Prediction: Manchester Utd

2. Leicester vs Manchester City

Manchester City xG is 1.97 and their xGA is 0.77. Where the xGA of Leicester is 1.97, I am expecting more than 2 goals from a strong City side with Torres and Grealish being involved in those goals. I am expecting a clean sheet from them, given that the shot in the box against (SiBA) City is ONLY 7, which is the highest, and the PSxG/SOTA is 0.31. City scored a 0-2 in the reverse fixtures. Prediction: Manchester City

3. Chelsea vs Aston Villa

Chelsea xG is 2.40 and their xGA is 0.65. Where the xGA of Villa is 2.4, I am expecting more than 2 goals from a strong Chelsea side with Lukaku and Mount being involved in those goals. Chelsea is defensively the best team and the eye test highlights the difficult nature of creating good goal scoring chances against them. I am expecting a clean sheet from them, given that the shots in the box against (SiBA) Chelsea is 22 where the PSxG/SOTA is 0.05 indicating a very strong GK and defence. The spaces they offer opposition attackers are minimal due to the centre backs being highly intelligent, with the wingbacks covering wide spaces to limit crosses into the box. Prediction: Chelsea

4. Southampton vs West Ham

Westham xG is 1.76 and Southampton xG is 2.03. Interestingly, this match has a potential for a goals galore. I am expecting more than 3 goals from this match with the likes of Antonio, Fornals, and James Ward Prowse being involved in those goals. Although Westham has a lower SiBA (19) than Southampton (29), their PSxG/SOTA of 0.52 for Westham and 0.45 for Southampton indicate both teams are highly likely to concede multiple goals. Prediction: GG

5. Watford vs Wolves

Wolves defensive numbers despite playing United, Spurs and Leicester include: 2nd best for shots conceded (27), 5th best for SiB conceded (20) and best non-penalty xGC (0.8) in the league. Prediction: GG

6. Crystal Palace vs Tottenham

Tottenham xG is 1.21 and their xGA is 0.68, where the xGA of Crystal Palace is 1.21. I am expecting a goal or 2 from a Tottenham side with Son and Dele being involved in those goals. I am expecting a clean sheet from them, given that the shots in the box against (SiBA) Tottenham is 31 (which is the highest shots conceded in the box of any team) and the PSxG/SOTA is 0.13 indicating their goal keeper is making a lot of saves. Prediction: Tottenham

7. Leeds vs Liverpool

Liverpool xG is 2.88 and their xGA is 1.60. Where the xGA of Leeds is 2.88, I am expecting more than 3 goals from this match with Salah, Jota, Mane, Bamford and Raphinha being involved in those goals. Liverpool has conceded 22 SiB and Leeds 30. The PSxG/SOTA for Liverpool is 0.25 and Leeds 0.26 indicating that both teams are likely to concede a goal. Prediction: Liverpool

8. Everton vs Burnley

Everton xG is 1.58 and their xGA is 0.66. Where the xGA of Burnley is 1.58, I am expecting 2 goals from an Everton side with DCL and Gray being involved in those goals. Everton has conceded 17 SiB and Burnley 41. The PSxG/SOTA for both teams is 0.29 indicating that both teams have good GK but given the high number of shots that Burnley concede inside the box, may result to a high goal turnover and the low number of shots that Everton concede inside their box may result to a clean sheet. In the opening 3 GW, Everton have conceded only 1 goal and just 2 big chances. Prediction: Everton

Key Players To Target

Since we have now determined our possible winning teams, to reap from the bumper harvest of goals and glory, we need to target key players who will be involved in those goals.

1. Hugo Lloris (5.6m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 6
Justification: Lloris is the highest scoring goalkeeper so far this season, averaging over 20 fantasy points per game. More importantly though, he's got another great matchup this week against Crystal Palace. Tottenham are expected to keep a clean sheet 50% of the time and let in 0.55 goals (according to the oddsmakers). Crystal Palace offense hasn't been entirely invisible either, so Lloris should be good for at least a couple saves in this one as well.

2. Mason Greenwood (7.7m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: With 3 goals in 3 games, an xG of 1.03, 11 SiB and an 85% pass completion, he has sharper instincts in front of a goal than Cristiano Ronaldo had at that same age.

3. Ferran Torres (7.1m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: Still playing OOP against Leicester, he is a great bargain since he is now guaranteed to start. He looks very lively often looking to get behind. His style of play is great to face Leicester with their lack of pace at the back resulting in likely returns.

4. Trent Alexander Arnold (7.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 9
Justification: Benching Trent in any matchup is a tricky choice to make. Trent has a whopping averaging of 26 fantasy points this season and you just cannot ignore that upside or pick against it. Since Harvey Elliot has come into the side, Trent has played a more advanced role, almost slotting in as a central midfielder. Playing dangerous balls in behind the defence which could exploit Leeds’ high defensive line.

5. R. Lukaku (11.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: The Lukaku Effect: Rom and Mount will link up nicely, Rom will bring Mount into the game, Lay-offs and hold ups could provide opportunities for Mount and Rom is a better finisher meaning chances Mount creates have more chances of being converted. Lukaku will play in front of a packed Stamford Bridge for the first time since his arrival. With 9 SiB, 5 CC and 2.0 xG, he is my best choice for Captain.

6. M. Mount (7.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: He is very creative, versatile, surrounded by world class players, works very hard on and off the ball, gets in advanced positions (takes up a hybrid #10 role) and is on set pieces. So far he has 14 points. Key stats from last season include: 6 goals, 7 assists, 27 SoT, 92 Chances Created and 13 BC Created. He is on trend to continue impressing this season. Chelsea have only improved their squad meaning more opportunities for Mount to link up play, provide assist or grab himself a goal.

7. Fornals (6.0m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: Fornals has been great these first few weeks for an in-form Westham scoring twice and assisting one. These returns have given fornals a total of 20 points ranking him 8th amongst midfielders. He ranks 2nd amongst attacking threat for Westham players. While everyone jumps on Benrahma, you could go ultra-differential and jump on this secret weapon.

8. Michail Antonio (7.9m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: In Salah’s record breaking season, he took 6 GW to score 40 points. Antonio has done it in half those game weeks. With 13 SiB, 9 BC involvements, 3.39 xG and 5.3 xGI, every single underlying statistic and the eye test point to the fact that he is the most valuable asset right now. It’s worth holding onto him for as long as he is injury free.

9. Adama Traore (6.0m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: Traore created 2 BC for Trincao against Manchester United. He had 4 AA, dribbles everywhere then creates chances. He’s been playing off the striker so far, staying high and making runs beyond the defence. He has the highest average position of any Wolves player and form a good attacking combo with Trincao. Furthermore, Wolves have a fantastic run until GW 15.

10. Ismaila Sarr (6m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: He was dangerous and very rapid in counter attack against Spurs, he collected 3 SIB and 2 AA. In total, he has 1 goal, 6 SiB, an non-penalty xG of 0.43 and 8 attempted assists. He has been playing on the last man so far this season, using his pace to get into promising positions. He also has the highest average position of any Watford player. A great pick for GW4-7.

11. Son (10.1m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: He is just a clinical finisher as we always say he is., showing up with good xGd in 19/20 (1.78) and even better in 20/21 (7.26). He could be the asset we all hope for if he is the main target for chances at Spurs and adapts well to that role.

12. D. Jota (7.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: With 2 goals so far and having started 2 out of 3 matches, Jota is playing in an advanced position of a forward especially given that Firmino is now injured and maybe out for a few months.

13. M. Salah (12.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 12
Justification: With 2 goals and 2 Assists, 11 SiB, an xG of 1.51, an xA of 1.09 and 9 CC, the runs that Salah makes could cause Leeds serious problems as he stays high and loves to run in behind.

14. D. Gray (5.6m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: He has had 2 goals, 2 SiB, 4 attempted assists and an npxG of 0.28. He has been coming in off the left flank, playing on the last man and making runs in behind the defence. He also had the highest average position of any Everton player. He has started 3/3 games under new boss Rafa Benitez, and looks to have nailed down that LM spot.

15. DCL (8.2m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 8
Justification: With 3 goals in 3 games, 11 shots where 7 were on target, 11 SiB, an xG of 2.78 which is the second highest, is the designated penalty taker and the main focal point to the Everton attack, you just can’t miss a spot for him in your fpl team, especially given the nice run of fixtures Everton is facing.

16. Luke Shaw (5.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 6
Justification: United has a high clean sheet of 0.51, I expect Shaw to bring home the 6 points. Additionally, Shaw has an xA of 0.59, which is the highest in the United defence.

17. Aymeric Laporte (5.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 9
Justification: Laporte offers a great attacking presence as well as high clean sheet chance. City has only conceded 7 SiB indicating a very strong defence. Laporte has had 1 goal, an xG of 0.36, an xA of 0.25 and 7 SiB. He also created 3 chances (1 big) so is superb for attacking returns. He is back and playing well with Dias, but better attacking threat than Dias. Expect him to keep a clean sheet every time he starts.

18. M. Alonso (5.7m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 11
Justification: Chelsea is defensively the best team and the eye test highlights the difficult nature of creating good goal scoring chances against them, with the wingbacks covering wide spaces to limit crosses into the box. I am expecting a clean sheet from him and a possible goal involvement.

19. Tanganga (4.5m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 6
Justification: In the game with Watford, he played in an advanced position, created 2 chances for Kane and Dele and had 1 SIB from corner. Against Crystal Palace, Spurs have an xGA of 0.68.

20. Semedo (4.9m)

Projected Fantasy Points: 6
Justification: Despite play

ing Leicester, Spurs and United in the first 3 GWs, Wolves only conceded 3 big chances during this period. This indicates future clean sheets , especially now when the fixtures turn. At only 4.9m, Semedo could prove to be a great pick.

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