FootballFallout

GW5 Match Predictions and PLayers To Watch

Published:

Hello everyone and welcome to the Football Fallout edition of everything you need to know looking ahead into gameweek 5, justified through a thorough analysis of stats to predict the key matches and players to target for your Fpl.

Key Fixtures

1. Newcastle vs Leeds

The reverse fixture results were 1-2. Having that in mind, Leeds have an xG of 2.53, and concedes an xG of 1.86. The fixture difficulty rating is 2. Leeds has a SOTA of 26 against 19 for Newcastle. With a PSxG/SOT of 0.27, their clean sheet percentage is 27 which are indicative of their strong defence against a Newcastle attack.
Prediction: Leeds

Best Chance Creators...
In this match, Bamford is the most valuable player. Bamford has an expected goal per 90 minutes of 0.55, 11 shots and 3 shots on target, which brings the SoT% to 27.2 (which is the highest in the team)

His goal per shot is 0.09 and goal per shot on target is 0.33 (again, the highest in the team). He has 2 goal creating actions and 6 shot creating actions. During the line-up of 4-1-4-1, his average position is a central 9 falling behind Rodrigo & Harrison to the right wing. In this match, he will be seeking to exploit pockets of spaces between Hayden and Lascelles to create big chances.

2. Wolves vs Brentford

Wolves have an xG of 1.13, and concede an xG of 0.59. Brentford on the other hand has an xG of 0.59. The fixture difficulty rating is 2 in favour of Wolves. Wolves have a SOTA of 15 against 13 for Brentford. With a PSxG/SOT of 0.22, their clean sheet percentage is 50 which are indicative of their strong defence line, against a Brentford side that has a PSxG/SOT of 0.23 and a clean sheet percentage of 29.
Prediction: Wolves

Best Chance Creators...
In this match, we have Trincao (with an aim to put to rest the rift with Traore) and Semedo as the most valuable players. Trincao has an expected goal per 90 minutes of 0.35 (Traore has 0.31), Trincao has 10 shots with 6 on target (Traore has 12 shots with only 4 on target). This makes Trincao the highest SoT % of 60 (against 25 for Traore). Trincao has the highest goal per shot of 1.81 (against Traore’s 0.78). Semedo on the other hand, has a goal per shot of 0.33 higher than even Trent. At his price of 4.9m, his value is worth it. During the line-up of 3-4-3, Traore has the highest average position, with Trincao flanking Traore in the Right wing, Jimenez falling behind Traore at the centre and Semedo playing in an advanced wing position. If Brentford goes with 3-5-2 line-up, the Trincao and Semedo combo will seek to exploit the pockets of spaces in the right wing between Henry & Pinnock

3. Liverpool vs Crystal Palace

The reverse fixture results were 2-0. Having that in mind, Liverpool has an xG of 2.30 (against a side that has a clean sheet of 9%), and concedes an xG of 0.96. The fixture difficulty rating is 2. Liverpool has a SOTA of 13 against 14 for Crystal Palace. With a PSxG/SOT of 0.29, their clean sheet percentage is 55 which are indicative of their strong defence against a Crystal Palace attack.
Prediction: Liverpool

Best Chance Creators...
In this match, we have three key players: Trent Alexander Arnold, Salah and Jota (Mane ought to be in this esteemed list, but I have my reservations which I will breakdown concurrently). Salah has an expected goal per 90 minutes of 0.62 and Jota has 0.48 (Mane on the other hand has 0.99, which is the highest). Salah has 15 shots with 5 on target, Jota has 11 shots with 5 on target and TAA has 8 shots with 3 on target. This translates to Jota having the highest SoT% of 45.5, TAA with 37.5, Salah with 33.3 (and Mane 26). Jota has the highest goal per shot of 0.18 and Salah 0.13, with the dual having the highest goal per shot on target of 0.40 (Mane has 0.09). During the line-up of 4-3-3, Mane plays the highest average position, with Salah flanking Mane to the right, Jota falling behind Mane at the centre, TAA playing in the advanced right wing behind Salah.

If Crystal Palace goes with 4-3-3 line-up, with Tyrick Mitchell playing at an advanced position, the Salah & TAA combo will be more than happy to exploit the plenty of spaces between Guehi and Joachim Andersen.

4. Manchester city vs Southampton

The reverse fixture results were a whooping 5-2. Having that in mind, Manchester city has an xG of 2.49 and concedes an xG of 0.62. The fixture difficulty rating is 2. Manchester city has a SOTA of 3 (which is the lowest of all teams) against 16 for Southampton. With a PSxG/SOT of 0.28, their clean sheet percentage is 58 which indicate a very exceptional defence, compared to Southampton’s clean sheet percentage of 7; City’s attack will no doubt have an open season of goals.
Prediction: Manchester city

Best Chance Creators...
In this match, we have Torres as our most valuable player (keeping in mind Pep’s roulette, we thus compare with the next stats explosive players: Mahrez, Sterling and Gabriel). Torres has an expected goal per 90 minutes of 0.72, Mahrez 0.83, Sterling 0.80 and Gabriel 0.34. Torres has the highest shots of 12 with 4 on target, which translates to a 33.3% SoT rate. Sterling has 8 shots with 4 on target, which translates to 50% SoT rate. Mahrez has 6 shots with 2 on target, which translates to 33% SoT rate. Torres has the highest shot per goal of 0.17, together with Mahrez. Torres and Gabriel have the highest goal creating actions of 3 and 4 respectively.

During Pep’s 4-3-3, Torres plays the highest average position in an advanced central role, Gundogan falling behind and Gabriel flanking to the right wing. Sterling is playing deep in the mid. If Southampton goes with a 4-1-4-1, the trio of Torres, Gundogan and Gabriel will seek to exploit pockets of spaces in the mid between Oriol Romelu, Mohammed Salisu and Romain Perraud.

5. Aston Villa vs Everton

The reverse fixture results were 0-0. Everton has an xG of 1.22 and concedes an xG of 0.88. The fixture difficulty rating is 3. Everton has a SOTA of 15 against 14 for Aston Villa. With a PSxG/SOT of 0.24, their clean sheet percentage is 28 which are lower compared to Villa’s clean sheet percentage of 31 and PSxG/SOT of 0.32. Taking all that stats into account, a draw between the two teams looks imminent. However, I have a hunch for an Everton win, given their current line-ups (Despite a DCL injury setback)
Prediction: Everton

Best Chance Creators...
In this match, we have Gray as our most valuable player (Of course in comparison with Doucoure and Richarlson). Gray has expected goals per 90 minutes of 0.25, Doucoure 0.13 and Richarlson 0.22. Gray has 8 shots with 3 of them on target, which translates to a 37% SoT rate. Doucoure has 8 shots with 4 of them on target, which translates to a 50% SoT rate and Richarlson has 9 shots with 1 on target, which translates to an 11% SoT rate. Gray has the highest goal per shot of 0.38; Doucoure has 0.13 and Richarlson 0.11.

During Rafa’s line-up of 4-4-1-1, Gray plays the highest average position flanked in the centre by Richarlson, with Doucoure falling behind and flanked in the deep right wing by Digne. If Aston Villa goes with a 5-3-2, the Gray and Richarlson combo will seek to exploit the plenty pockets of spaces in the right wing between Ezri Konsa and Matty Cash.

Summary

There is so much expectation around the different line-ups but all in all, the excitement behind watching the game unfold is all that matters. Best of luck to all FPL managers.

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