FootballFallout

GW7 Match Previews and Best Chance Creators to Target

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Hello everyone and welcome to the Football Fallout edition of everything you need to know looking ahead into gameweek 7, justified through a thorough analysis of stats to predict the key matches and players to target for your Fpl.

GW 6 performance was good, in terms of match performance, 3 of the 6 games predicted lived up to their expectation: 1. Everton Win 2. Arsenal Win. 3 Crystal Palace draw. In terms of FPL expectation, 7 of the predicted best chance creators provided 65 points.

Where the world’s FPL average stood at 34, 65 is a justified premium! Find below the coverage of GW7 key fixtures to target, together with their best chance creators.

Key Fixtures

1. Manchester United vs Everton

In between this week fixtures, Ole's men played a UEFA match at Trafford with Greenwood, Bruno, Sancho and Cristiano playing fulltime. Lingard and Martial were in the bench, Pogba was subbed out in the 75th minute. Leads me to speculate Lingard will be given minutes and might haul.

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form, both teams have played 34 reverse fixtures, where United has won 20 matches and Everton 2 matches at Trafford, which translates to a 59% win rate for United at home. The immediate reverse fixtures resulted in a 3-3 draw.

United has a higher home advantage having scored 35 goals in 13 matches at home and conceded 18 goals, compared to Everton’s attack away having scored 14 goals and conceded 16 goals in 13 away matches.

United however, has a low clean sheet probability at home having 2 clean sheets in 13 matches at home, where Everton has a higher clean sheet probability at away matches, having 7 clean sheets in 13 away matches.

The probability of Man United win is higher but marginally to indicate also a high likelihood for a draw and a goal-goal outcome.

Best Chance Creators

Pogba and Cristiano are the most threatening players for United. Pogba and Bruno rank highest to collect bonus points, with Bruno being the most influential. With a possibility of a goal-goal, we also need to target Everton assets. Doucoure is the most threatening and influential, he and Gray also rank highest to collect bonus

2. Burnley vs Norwich

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Burnley has a higher home advantage, having scored 8 goals in 13 home matches, compared to Norwich attack away, where they have not scored any away goals yet and have conceded 8 goals in only 3 away matches played.

Burnley however, has a low clean sheet probability at home having conceded 21 goals in 13 matches at home. Norwich has the lowest clean sheet probabilities yet, but might put on a show with their star Pukki and pull a goal-goal since Burnley has kept only 1 clean sheet in those 13 matches at home.

The probability of a Burnley win is higher but with a goal-goal outcome.

Best Chance Creators

Wood is Burnley’s most threatening player and ranks highest in the team to collect bonus points. Pukki might score for Norwich being their most threatening player.

3. Chelsea vs Southampton

In between this week fixtures, Tuchel's men played a UEFA match at Turin. The notable highlights are Alonso was subbed out in the 46th minute, Jorgi and Azpi in the 62nd. Leads me to speculate Alonso will be started in Tuchel's rotation scheme (in sharp contrast from the speculation that Chilwell will be started Alonso)

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form, both teams have played 26 reverse fixtures, where Chelsea has won 11 matches and Southampton 4 matches at the Bridge, which translates to a 42% win rate for Chelsea at home. The immediate reverse fixtures resulted in a 3-3 draw. Chelsea has a higher home advantage, scoring 18 goals in 13 matches played at home compared to Southampton attack away scoring 10 goals.

Chelsea has a high clean sheet probability at home having 9 clean sheets in 13 matches at home. Southampton has only 2 clean sheets in 13 away matches.

The probability of Chelsea win is very high with a 59% chance of a clean sheet.

Best Chance Creators

Lukaku is the most threatening player for Chelsea, with him and Alonso ranking highest to collect bonus points. Kovacic is the most influential player for Chelsea.

4. Leeds vs Watford

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Leeds has a higher home advantage, having scored 18 goals in 13 home matches, compared to Watford’s attack away, where they have scored 3 away goals and have conceded 4 goals in only 3 away matches played (which is still a small sample size).

The probability of a Leeds win is high.

Best Chance Creator

With Bamford's injury ruling him out for another 2 weeks, Raphinha is Leeds’s most threatening and influential player and ranks highest in the team to collect bonus points. Klich ranks second in threat and also collecting bonus points.

5. Wolves vs Newcastle

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Wolves has an average home advantage, having scored 11 goals in 13 home matches, compared to Newcastle attack away form, where they have scored 14 away goals.

Both teams have each maintained 3 clean sheets in their 13 home and away matches. Wolves has conceded 19 goals in 13 home matches while Newcastle has conceded 21 goals in away matches.

The probability of a draw is high.

Best Chance Creator

Saint Allan Maximin is the most threatening and influential player for Newcastle, with most big chances coming from him.

6. Brighton vs Arsenal

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Brighton has a high home advantage, having scored 16 goals in 13 home matches and conceded 10 goals, compared to Arsenal’s attack away form, where they have scored 21 away goals and conceded 17 goals in 13 away matches.

Brighton has maintained 7 clean sheets in their 13 home matches, where Arsenal has only 4 clean sheets.

The probability of a Brighton win is high.

Best Chance Creator

Maupay is the most threatening player for Brighton, and Duffy is the most influential player with most Brighton’s big chances coming from him. Maupay ranks highest to collect bonus points.

7. Crystal Palace vs Leicester

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Crystal Palace has an average home advantage, having scored 13 goals in 13 home matches and conceded 18 goals, compared to Leicester’s s attack away form, where they have scored 18 away goals and conceded 18 goals in 13 away matches.

Palace has maintained 6 clean sheets in their 13 home matches, where Leicester has only 2 clean sheets away.

The probability of a Draw is high, with a goal-goal outcome.

Best Chance Creator

Gallagher is the most threatening and influential player for Palace and Vardy is the most influential and threatening for Leicester. They both rank highest to collect bonus points.

8. Tottenham vs Aston Villa

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Tottenham has a high home advantage, having scored 23 goals in 13 home matches and conceded 14 goals, compared to Villa’s attack away form, where they have scored 15 away goals and conceded 18 goals in 13 away matches.

Tottenham has maintained 6 clean sheets in their 13 home matches, where Villa has only 4 clean sheets.

The probability of a Tottenham win is high.

Best Chance Creator

Son is the most threatening and influential player for Tottenham, big chances will be created by him. Son and Reguilon rank highest to collect bonus points.

9. WestHam vs Brentford

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. WestHam has a high home advantage, having scored 26 goals in 13 home matches and conceded 17 goals, compared to Brentford’s attack away form, where they have scored 3 away goals and conceded 1 goal in just 3 away matches (however, the sample size is small, adjusting to WestHam's run of 13 fixtures)

West Ham has maintained 3 clean sheets in their 13 home matches

.

The probability of a WestHam win is high, with a goal-goal outcome.

Best Chance Creator

Antonio and Benrahma are the most threatening and influential players for WestHam and they rank highest to collect bonus points. Pinnock (if he is played) is the most influential player for Brentford and will create big chances. Mbeumo ranks second as he is playing as the highest average position for Brentford.

10. Liverpool vs Manchester City

They both had UEFA away fixtures in this week. Notable highlights include: Salah, Jota and Mane were subbed out in the 67th and 88th minutes for Liverpool. Stones and Foden were in the bench, with Gabriel being subbed out in the 78th minute for City. With that in mind, I speculate Gabriel, Stones and Foden being started in Pep's elusive rotation schemes. Jota will be started instead of Firmino in Klopp’s matchday lineup.

Looking into the quality and impact of the home/away teams, the size of the home advantage and away attack form. Liverpool has a poor home advantage, having scored 15 goals in 13 home matches and conceded 14 goals, compared to City’s attack away form, where they have scored 27 away goals and conceded 10 goals in 13 away matches.

Liverpool has maintained 5 clean sheets in their 13 home matches, with City maintaining 7 cleansheets in the away matches.

The probability of a Man City win is high, with a goal-goal outcome.

Best Chance Creator

Gabriel and Cancelo are the most threatening and influential players for City and they rank highest to collect bonus points. Foden (if started) will also create big chances. Salah is the main man at Liverpool since he is on set pieces.

Clean Sheet Probabilities

  1. Chelsea 59%
  2. Everton 46%
  3. Crystal Palace 39%
  4. Brighton 37%
  5. Man City 33%
  6. Tottenham 32%
  7. Newcastle 18%
  8. Wolves 18%
  9. Aston Villa 17%
  10. Liverpool 17%
  11. Arsenal 14%
  12. Leicester 8%
  13. WestHam 8%
  14. Man United
  15. Man United

Summary

The quality and impact of the home and away teams, the size of their home advantage, away attack form, possible clean sheets and a glimpse of the between the week fixtures are the metrics largely adopted to predict performance of the matches. The results of this metric framework will be availed after the final match day. Hopefully after the last match on Sunday, this will be a success story. Have a great match weekend ahead.

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